Indonesia’s Positive Trade Balance Performance Continues

Indonesia’s Positive Trade Balance Performance Continues

Jakarta, 1 December 2025 — Indonesia’s trade balance continued to post a strong performance, recording a surplus of USD 35.88 billion during the period January–October 2025, an increase of USD 10.98 billion compared to the same period last year.

“Indonesia’s trade balance has recorded a surplus for 66 consecutive months since May 2020. The surplus during January–October 2025 was driven by a non-oil and gas surplus of USD 51.51 billion, while the oil and gas balance still recorded a deficit of USD 15.63 billion,” said Pudji Ismartini, Deputy Chief Statistician for Distribution and Services Statistics at Statistics Indonesia (BPS), in Jakarta on Monday (1 December 2025).

Exports during January–October 2025 increased by 6.96 percent year-on-year, primarily driven by the manufacturing sector, which recorded exports worth USD 187.82 billion, up 15.75 percent compared to the same period last year.

The top three export destinations for Indonesia were China, the United States, and India, accounting for 41.84 percent of total non-oil and gas exports during January–October 2025. China remained Indonesia’s largest non-oil and gas export market, with exports valued at USD 52.45 billion (23.51 percent), followed by the United States at USD 25.56 billion (11.46 percent) and India at USD 15.32 billion (6.87 percent).

Exports to China were dominated by iron and steel, mineral fuels, and nickel products, while exports to the United States were mainly electrical machinery and equipment, knitted apparel and accessories, and footwear.

Imports during January–October 2025 reached USD 198.16 billion, up 2.19 percent year-on-year. The increase was primarily driven by non-oil and gas imports, which amounted to USD 171.61 billion, rising 4.95 percent. In contrast, oil and gas imports declined by 12.67 percent to USD 26.56 billion.

By end-use category, the increase in imports was mainly driven by capital goods, with import values reaching USD 40.55 billion, up 18.67 percent compared to the same period last year.

China was also the largest source of Indonesia’s non-oil and gas imports, totaling USD 70.19 billion (40.90 percent) during January–October 2025, followed by Japan (USD 12.17 billion; 7.09 percent) and the United States (USD 8.17 billion; 4.76 percent). Imports from China were dominated by machinery and mechanical appliances, electrical machinery, and vehicles and parts.

The non-oil and gas trade surplus over the first ten months of 2025 was largely supported by five main commodities: animal and vegetable fats and oils (USD 28.12 billion), mineral fuels (USD 22.59 billion), iron and steel (USD 15.79 billion), nickel products (USD 7.39 billion), and footwear (USD 5.47 billion).

Inflation in November 2025

BPS recorded monthly inflation of 0.17 percent (m-to-m) in November 2025. On an annual basis, inflation stood at 2.72 percent (y-on-y), while year-to-date inflation reached 2.27 percent.

“The largest contributor to monthly inflation was the personal care and other services group, which recorded inflation of 1.21 percent and contributed 0.09 percentage points to overall inflation. The main commodity driving inflation in this group was gold jewelry, contributing 0.08 percentage points,” Pudji explained.

Several commodities continued to exert deflationary pressure in November 2025, including broiler chicken meat (–0.03 percentage points), as well as rice and red chili, each contributing –0.02 percentage points.

By component, inflation in November 2025 was primarily driven by core inflation, which contributed 0.11 percentage points, with gold jewelry again being the dominant contributor. The administered prices component contributed 0.05 percentage points, mainly due to air transportation fares.

Regionally, 28 provinces recorded inflation, while 10 provinces experienced deflation on a monthly basis. The highest inflation was observed in Papua (1.69 percent), while the deepest deflation occurred in Aceh (–0.67 percent).

On an annual basis, all provinces recorded inflation in November 2025. The highest annual inflation was recorded in Riau (4.27 percent), while the lowest was in North Sulawesi (0.65 percent).

Farmers’ Terms of Trade (FTT)

Indonesia’s Farmer Terms of Trade (NTP) in November 2025 stood at 124.05, down 0.23 percent compared to October 2025. The decline was due to a 0.26 percent decrease in the price index received by farmers (It), which fell more sharply than the 0.03 percent decline in the price index paid by farmers (Ib).

BPS also recorded a decline in average rice prices at the mill, wholesale, and retail levels, falling by 0.88 percent, 0.93 percent, and 0.59 percent (m-to-m), respectively. This marked the third consecutive month of price declines across the supply chain.

Rice and Maize Production

The realized harvested area for paddy rice in October 2025 reached 0.86 million hectares, up 4.44 percent compared to October 2024. This increase was accompanied by higher production, with paddy output estimated at 4.72 million tons of unhusked rice (GKG), up 3.53 percent year-on-year.

The potential harvested area for November 2025–January 2026 is estimated at 1.61 million hectares, an increase of 0.29 million hectares (21.51 percent) compared to the same period last year. Correspondingly, potential paddy production during this period is estimated at 8.87 million tons of GKG, up 21.31 percent, while rice production is projected at 5.11 million tons, an increase of 21.25 percent. “As a result, total paddy production for January–December 2025 is projected to reach 60.37 million tons of GKG, an increase of 7.23 million tons (13.61 percent) compared to 2024,” Pudji noted.

For maize, the realized harvested area in October 2025 reached 0.20 million hectares, down 5.06 percent compared to October 2024. Maize production in October 2025 is estimated at 1.24 million tons of dried shelled corn (14 percent moisture content), a decrease of 7.47 percent year-on-year.

However, the potential harvested area for maize during November 2025–January 2026 is estimated at 0.62 million hectares, up 20.91 percent compared to the same period in 2024. Potential maize production during this period is projected at 3.93 million tons, an increase of 18.96 percent.

Pudji added that the potential production of dried shelled corn with 14 percent moisture content for the period January–December 2025 is estimated at 16.50 million tons, representing an increase of 1.36 million tons, or 9.00 percent, compared with the same period in 2024.

Tourism Indicators

International tourist arrivals to Indonesia in October 2025 reached 1.33 million visits, up 11.19 percent compared to October 2024. Cumulatively, total foreign tourist arrivals during January–October 2025 reached 12.76 million visits, an increase of 10.32 percent year-on-year. The largest shares of visitors in October 2025 came from Malaysia (17.13 percent), Australia (11.90 percent), and Singapore (9.40 percent).

Domestic tourism also strengthened, with 96 million domestic trips recorded in October 2025, up 17.90 percent compared to October 2024. Cumulatively, domestic trips during January–October 2025 reached 997.91 million trips, an increase of 18.89 percent.

Passenger and Freight Transportation

In the transportation sector, international air passengers totaled 1.8 million in October 2025, up 6.97 percent year-on-year. Rail passengers reached 49.3 million, up 8.33 percent, while domestic sea transport passengers totaled 2.3 million, an increase of 9.97 percent. Meanwhile, domestic air passengers declined slightly by 1.02 percent to 5.3 million, and ASDP ferry passengers reached 4.0 million, up 1.11 percent.

BPS also recorded that in October 2025, the volume of goods transported by domestic sea freight reached 44.6 million tons, an increase of 8.75 percent compared with the same period last year. Meanwhile, rail freight amounted to 6.7 million tons, up 1.95 percent. In contrast, goods transported by domestic air freight totaled 54.3 thousand tons, declining by 6.70 percent compared with October 2024.