Indonesia’s Trade Balance Remains Positive

Jakarta, July 1 – Indonesia’s trade balance continued to post a surplus in the first five months of 2025. According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the country recorded a trade surplus of USD 15.38 billion between January and May 2025, an increase of USD 2.32 billion compared to the same period last year. This marks the 61st consecutive monthly trade surplus since May 2020.

During this period, exports totaled USD 111.98 billion, outpacing imports which stood at USD 96.60 billion.

“The surplus in January–May 2025 was mainly supported by a non-oil and gas surplus of USD 23.10 billion, while the oil and gas sector recorded a deficit of USD 7.72 billion,” said Pudji Ismartini, Deputy Chief Statistician for Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, during a press briefing in Jakarta.

The export value from January to May 2025 increased by 6.98% compared to the same period last year. Pudji explained that this growth was mainly driven by the manufacturing sector, which recorded exports worth USD 88.60 billion—an increase of 16.53%.

Several leading commodities continued to show strong performance. Exports of iron and steel rose 11.02% to USD 11.61 billion. Exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives surged 27.89% to USD 8.90 billion. However, coal exports declined by 19.10% to USD 10.26 billion. “Together, these three commodities accounted for approximately 29.01% of Indonesia’s total non-oil exports in January–May 2025,” Pudji explained.

Indonesia’s main export destinations were China, the United States, and India, which collectively contributed 41.17% to total non-oil exports. China remained the largest export market, with a value of USD 24.25 billion (22.87%), followed by the United States at USD 12.11 billion (11.42%), and India at USD 7.28 billion (6.87%). Exports to China were dominated by iron and steel, mineral fuels, and nickel products. Exports to the United States consisted mainly of electrical machinery, footwear, and garments.

On the import side, Indonesia imported goods worth USD 96.60 billion from January to May 2025, marking a 5.45% increase from the same period in 2024. Non-oil imports amounted to USD 82.96 billion (up 7.92%), while oil and gas imports fell by 7.44% to USD 13.64 billion. By end-use category, the increase in imports was largely due to rising demand for raw materials and capital goods. “Capital goods imports reached USD 18.82 billion, up 17.67% from the same period last year,” said Pudji.

China remained the largest source of Indonesia’s non-oil imports at USD 33.12 billion (39.92%), followed by Japan (USD 6.31 billion or 7.61%) and Singapore (USD 3.89 billion or 4.69%). Imports from China were mainly machinery, electrical equipment, and vehicles.

Indonesia’s non-oil trade surplus was largely supported by five main commodity groups: animal and vegetable fats and oils (USD 12.44 billion), mineral fuels (USD 11.51 billion), iron and steel (USD 7.53 billion), nickel products (USD 3.33 billion), and footwear (USD 2.05 billion).

In terms of trading partners, Indonesia recorded the largest non-oil trade surpluses with the United States (USD 8.28 billion), India (USD 5.32 billion), and the Philippines (USD 3.69 billion). These surpluses were primarily supported by exports of electrical machinery, footwear, and garments.

Meanwhile, the largest non-oil trade deficits were posted with China (USD 8.87 billion), Australia (USD 1.93 billion), and Brazil (USD 676.4 million). Imports from China were dominated by mechanical and electrical machinery, and vehicles.

As of May 2025, Indonesia’s exports stood at USD 24.61 billion, rising 9.68% compared to May 2024. Imports also increased, reaching USD 20.31 billion—up 4.14% year-on-year.

June 2025 Inflation

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that Indonesia experienced inflation of 0.19% (month-to-month) in June 2025. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 108.07 in May to 108.27 in June. This contrasts with June 2024, when deflation of 0.08% was recorded. On an annual basis, inflation stood at 1.87%, while year-to-date inflation was 1.38%.

The main contributor to monthly inflation was the food, beverages, and tobacco group, which recorded 0.46% inflation and contributed 0.13 percentage points. The housing, utilities, and household fuels group saw inflation of 0.09% (0.02 percentage points), and personal care and other services rose 0.33% (0.02 percentage points).

“Volatile prices were the largest contributor to June 2025 inflation, accounting for 0.13 percentage points,” Pudji said. Major contributors included rice, bird’s eye chili, shallots, and tomatoes. Core inflation contributed 0.04 percentage points—mainly from gold jewelry—while administered prices added 0.02 percentage points, driven by airfares, household fuel, and machine-made clove cigarettes (SKM).

Regionally, 26 provinces experienced inflation, while 12 provinces recorded deflation. “The highest inflation was in Maluku at 0.97%, while the deepest deflation was in the Papua Highlands at 1.50%,” Pudji added.

Farmer’s Terms of Trade (NTP) Rise

National NTP in June 2025 rose to 121.72, an increase of 0.47% compared to May. “The rise was driven by a 0.70% increase in the index of prices received by farmers, while the index of prices paid rose by 0.23%,” said Pudji. Rice prices increased across the supply chain: 2.05% at milling, 1.78% at wholesale, and 1.00% at retail (month-to-month).

Rice Production Outlook

BPS reported that rice harvested area in May 2025 was 0.98 million hectares, down 22.13% from May 2024. Correspondingly, rice production (dry unhusked grain) is estimated at 4.98 million tons, a 22.74% decrease year-on-year. Rice for consumption is projected at 2.87 million tons, down 22.65%.

Looking ahead, the potential harvested area for June–August 2025 is projected to reach 2.77 million hectares—up 13.05% compared to the same period last year. For the January–August 2025 period, harvested area is expected to reach 8.24 million hectares, an increase of 13.22%.

Rice production for June–August 2025 is projected at 8.09 million tons, up 13.88%, while January–August production is projected to reach 24.97 million tons—up 14.09% year-on-year. Pudji emphasized that actual production may vary depending on planting conditions during the period.

Foreign Tourist Arrivals Increase

Foreign tourist arrivals in May 2025 totaled 1.31 million, up 14.01% from May 2024. Cumulatively, arrivals from January to May reached 5.63 million—up 7.44% year-on-year. The largest number of visitors came from Malaysia (18.26%), Australia (11.31%), and Singapore (9.68%). Domestic tourism also saw significant growth. In May 2025, domestic tourist trips reached 97.67 million, a 17.81% increase from May 2024. Of these, 72.31% were intra-provincial trips, while 27.69% were inter-provincial. From January to May, domestic trips reached 508.67 million, up 16.13% year-on-year.

Outbound trips by Indonesian nationals totaled 585.8 thousand in May 2025, down 6.52% year-on-year. However, cumulative outbound travel reached 3.84 million, an increase of 7.63% from the same period last year.

Passenger Volume Across Transport Modes

In May 2025, 4.54 million passengers departed on domestic flights, a 14.19% decline from May 2024. However, international air passenger departures rose to 1.76 million—up 9.04% year-on-year.Other transport modes also saw growth. Railway passengers totaled 45.08 million, up 8.01%, while domestic sea transport passengers reached 2.57 million—an increase of 17.26% compared to May 2024.