Indonesia’s Balance of Trade Continues to Record a Surplus

Jakarta, January 5 — Indonesia’s balance of trade continued to show positive performance, posting a surplus of US$38.54 billion during the period January–November 2025, an increase of US$9.30 billion compared to the same period last year.

Indonesia has maintained a trade surplus for 67 consecutive months since May 2020. The surplus recorded during January–November 2025 was primarily driven by a non-oil and gas trade surplus of US$56.15 billion, while the oil and gas trade balance remained in deficit at US$17.61 billion, said Pudji Ismartini, Deputy Chief Statistician for Distribution and Services Statistics at Statistics Indonesia (BPS), at a press conference in Jakarta on Monday (5/1/2026).

Indonesia’s exports during January–November 2025 grew by 5.61 percent year-on-year, largely driven by the manufacturing sector, which posted export earnings of US$205.93 billion, an increase of 14.00 percent compared with the same period last year.

China, the United States, and India were Indonesia’s top three export destinations, together contributing 42.02 percent of total non-oil and gas exports. China remained the largest market with export value reaching US$58.24 billion (23.80%), followed by the United States at US$28.14 billion (11.50%) and India at US$16.44 billion (6.72%).

Indonesia’s imports during January–November 2025 amounted to US$218.02 billion, representing a 2.03 percent year-on-year increase. The import structure was dominated by the non-oil and gas sector, which totaled US$188.61 billion and grew by 4.37 percent, while oil and gas imports declined by 10.81 percent to US$29.42 billion. In terms of usage, the rise in imports was primarily driven by capital goods, with import value reaching US$44.81 billion, up 18.54 percent relative to the same period in the previous year.

The non-oil and gas trade surplus during the first eleven months of 2025 was largely supported by five major commodities, namely animal and vegetable fats and oils (US$30.29 billion), mineral fuels (US$25.20 billion), iron and steel (US$17.02 billion), nickel products (US$8.37 billion), and footwear (US$6.08 billion).

Inflation in December 2025

In December 2025, Indonesia recorded an inflation rate of 0.64 percent month-to-month, reflected by an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 109.22 in November 2025 to 109.92 in December 2025. On both a year-on-year and calendar-year basis, inflation stood at 2.92 percent. The largest contributor to monthly inflation was the food, beverages, and tobacco group, which recorded inflation of 1.66 percent and contributed 0.48 percentage points. Commodities that continued to contribute to deflation included red chili, with a deflation contribution of 0.03 percentage points.

By component, inflation in December 2025 was primarily driven by the volatile food component, which contributed 0.45 percentage points, mainly due to price increases in bird’s eye chili, broiler chicken meat, shallots, and chicken eggs. Meanwhile, the core inflation component contributed 0.12 percentage points, largely driven by higher prices of gold jewelry and cooking oil.

By region, all provinces recorded inflation on a monthly basis, with the highest inflation observed in Aceh (3.60%) and the lowest in North Maluku (0.05%). Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra recorded the highest monthly inflation following flooding events in late November 2025, with inflation largely driven by the food, beverages, and tobacco group. North Sumatra recorded monthly inflation of 1.66 percent, while West Sumatra recorded 1.48 percent.

On an annual basis (y-on-y), inflation in December 2025 stood at 2.92 percent, with the CPI increasing from 106.80 in December 2024 to 109.92 in December 2025. Annual inflation was mainly driven by the food, beverages, and tobacco group, which recorded inflation of 4.58 percent and contributed 1.33 percentage points.

By region, all provinces experienced annual inflation, with the highest recorded in Aceh (6.71%) and the lowest in North Sulawesi (1.23%).

Farmers’ Terms of Trade

The national Farmers’ Terms of Trade (FTT) in December 2025 reached 125.35, increasing 1.05 percent compared to November 2025. The increase was driven by a 2.08 percent rise in the price index received by farmers, which exceeded the 1.02 percent increase in the price index paid by farmers.

Rice and Maize Production

The realized harvested area for paddy in November 2025 reached 0.57 million hectares, an increase of 3.56 percent compared to November 2024. This increase was accompanied by higher production, with paddy output estimated at 3.20 million tons of dry unhusked rice, up 2.83 percent year-on-year, equivalent to 1.85 million tons of rice, also up 2.83 percent.

The potential harvested area of paddy during December 2025–February 2026 is estimated at 2.00 million hectares, an increase of 0.47 million hectares, or about 30.70 percent higher than the same period last year. Accordingly, potential paddy production over the same period is projected to reach 10.81 million tons of unhusked rice (GKG), up 32.58 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, rice production during December 2025–February 2026 is estimated at 6.23 million tons, or an increase of 32.51 percent compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, the harvested area for maize in November 2025 reached 0.16 million hectares, up 10.09 percent year-on-year, resulting in estimated production of 1.03 million tons of dried shelled maize (14% moisture content), an increase of 5.32 percent from the same period a year earlier.

The potential harvested area for maize during December 2025–February 2026 is estimated at 0.70 million hectares, slightly lower than the same period in 2024, while potential production is projected at 4.22 million tons, up 0.71 percent relative to the same period in the previous year.

Tourism Indicators

The number of international tourist arrivals to Indonesia in November 2025 reached 1.20 million visits, an increase of 9.79 percent compared to November 2024, which recorded 1.09 million visits. Cumulatively, total international tourist arrivals during January–November 2025 amounted to 13.98 million visits, up 10.44 percent compared to the same period in 2024. In detail, international tourists visiting Indonesia in November 2025 were predominantly nationals of Malaysia (17.30 percent), Australia (11.30 percent), and Singapore (10.50 percent).

Domestic tourism trips in November 2025 reached 96.45 million, an increase of 19.64 percent compared to November 2024. Cumulatively, January–November 2025 recorded 1.09 billion domestic trips, up 18.95 percent compared to the same period last year.

Transportation Indicators

In November 2025, the number of international air passengers reached 1.6 million, up 5.26 percent year-on-year. Rail passenger volume increased to 47.4 million, up 11.10 percent, while domestic sea transport passengers reached 2.2 million, an increase of 9.53 percent. Domestic air passengers totaled 5.0 million, up 2.30 percent, passengers using ASDP ferries reached 3.9 million, which indicates an increase of 9.83 percent.

BPS also recorded that the volume of goods transported by domestic sea transport in November 2025 reached 47.19 million tons, up 16.49 percent year-on-year. Rail freight volume amounted to 6.5 million tons, an increase of 7.12 percent, while domestic air cargo declined 9.31 percent to 53.0 thousand tons compared to November 2024.