Indonesia’s Goods Trade Balance Remains in Surplus

Jakarta, June 2, 2025 – Indonesia’s goods trade balance once again recorded a positive performance. Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik/BPS) reported that the goods trade balance for the period January–April 2025 posted a surplus of US$11.07 billion, an increase of US$0.95 billion compared to the same period last year.

“This performance was supported by exports reaching US$87.36 billion, higher than imports which totaled US$76.29 billion,” explained Pudji Ismartini, Deputy Chief Statistician for Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, during a press conference in Jakarta.

The value of exports in January–April 2025 rose by 6.65 percent compared to the same period the previous year. Pudji stated that this increase was primarily driven by the manufacturing sector, with total export value reaching US$68.84 billion, an increase of 16.08 percent.

Several key commodities recorded high export growth during January–April 2025. Exports of iron and steel contributed US$8.81 billion, up 6.62 percent, while exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives also increased by 20 percent to US$7.05 billion. However, not all leading commodities recorded positive performance; coal exports declined by 19.74 percent to US$8.17 billion.

Pudji continued, “From the destination country perspective, China remained the primary export market for non-oil and gas commodities during January–April 2025, with exports valued at US$18.87 billion (22.86 percent), followed by the United States at US$9.38 billion (11.36 percent) and India at US$5.59 billion (6.77 percent). Exports to China were dominated by iron and steel, mineral fuels, and nickel and its products. Meanwhile, key commodities exported to the United States included machinery and electrical equipment, footwear, as well as clothing and accessories.”

On the import side, BPS recorded imports valued at US$76.29 billion during January–April 2025, an increase of 6.27 percent compared to the same period last year. The main contributors were still from the non-oil and gas sector (US$65.29 billion), which rose by 9.18 percent, while imports in the oil and gas sector decreased by 8.27 percent to US$11 billion.

The primary imported non-oil and gas commodities were mechanical machinery and parts (US$10.75 billion), electrical machinery and parts (US$9.35 billion), and vehicles and parts (US$3.45 billion). By usage, BPS also noted that imports of raw materials or auxiliary goods rose by 5.32 percent to US$55.35 billion.

During January–April 2025, China remained the largest source country for non-oil and gas imports, with imports valued at US$25.77 billion (39.48 percent), followed by Japan at US$5.04 billion (7.72 percent), and Thailand at US$3.13 billion (4.79 percent). Imports from China were dominated by mechanical machinery and equipment, electrical machinery and equipment, as well as vehicles and their parts.

The non-oil and gas trade surplus in the first four months of this year was largely supported by five main commodities, namely animal/vegetable fats and oils (US$9.85 billion), mineral fuels (US$9.16 billion), iron and steel (US$5.54 billion), nickel products (US$2.59 billion), and footwear (US$2.05 billion). From the partner country perspective, Indonesia recorded the highest non-oil and gas trade surpluses with the United States (US$6.42 billion), India (US$4 billion), and the Philippines (US$2.92 billion). The largest contributors to the surplus with the United States were electrical machinery and equipment and their parts, footwear, and clothing and accessories.

Conversely, during the same period, the deepest non-oil and gas trade deficits were recorded with China (US$6.9 billion), Australia (US$1.57 billion), and Hong Kong (US$486 million). The largest contributors to Indonesia’s trade deficit with China were mechanical machinery and parts, electrical machinery and parts, and vehicles and parts.

For April alone, export value reached US$20.74 billion, up 5.76 percent compared to April 2024, while imports reached US$20.59 billion, an increase of 21.84 percent compared to April 2024.

Deflation Recorded in May 2025

BPS further noted that deflation occurred in May 2025 by 0.37 percent month-to-month (m-to-m). “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined from 108.47 in April 2025 to 108.07 in May 2025,” Pudji explained. This figure was a deeper deflation compared to May of the previous year, which was 0.03 percent. Year-on-year inflation stood at 1.60 percent, while calendar year inflation was 1.19 percent.

The expenditure group contributing most to the monthly deflation was food, beverages, and tobacco, which deflated by 1.40 percent, contributing 0.41 percent to the deflation. The information, communication, and financial services group experienced inflation of 0.31 percent, contributing 0.02 percent inflation. Other expenditure groups that experienced inflation included personal care and other services, which rose by 0.23 percent with a 0.02 percent inflation contribution.

“Based on components, deflation in May 2025 was primarily driven by volatile price components, which contributed 0.41 percent to deflation,” Pudji explained. The commodities dominating the deflation contribution were red chili, bird’s eye chili, shallots, fresh fish, and garlic. Next, government-regulated price components contributed 0.01 percent to deflation, with major contributors being inter-city transportation tariffs and gasoline prices. Meanwhile, the core price component contributed 0.05 percent inflation, with main contributors being mobile phone credit tariffs, gold jewelry, and ground coffee.

By region, 31 provinces experienced deflation on a monthly basis, while 7 provinces experienced inflation. “The highest deflation occurred in Gorontalo, at 1.68 percent, while the lowest deflation occurred in Southeast Sulawesi, at 0.14 percent,” Pudji concluded.

International Tourist Visits Increase

The number of foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia in April 2025 reached 1.16 million visits, up 9.15 percent compared to the same month in 2024, which recorded 1.07 million visits. “Cumulatively, until April 2025, the total number of foreign tourist arrivals to Indonesia reached 4.33 million visits, an increase of 5.60 percent compared to the same period last year,” Pudji stated. He further detailed that the majority of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia in April 2025 were from Malaysia (14.6 percent), Australia (12.9 percent), and China (9.1 percent).

Another tourism indicator released by BPS was the number of domestic tourist trips, which in April 2025 reached 128.59 million trips, an increase of 23.02 percent from April 2024. “Cumulatively, until April 2025, the total number of domestic tourist trips reached 410.99 million trips, an increase of 15.74 percent compared to the same period last year,” Pudji explained.

BPS also specifically released the number of domestic tourist trips during the Eid al-Fitr 1446 H period, from March 24 to April 7, 2025. Total domestic trips during Eid al-Fitr this year reached 77.09 million trips for departures and 72.66 million trips for returns. Additionally, BPS recorded the peak departure date for domestic trips during the Eid period was April 1, 2025, with 11.67 million trips, while the peak return date was April 6, 2025, with 8.38 million trips.

Furthermore, in April 2025, Indonesian tourists traveling abroad reached 926.6 thousand trips, up 22.51 percent compared to April 2024. Cumulatively, until April 2025, the total number of outbound Indonesian tourist trips reached 3.26 million trips, an increase of 10.65 percent compared to the same period last year.

Rice Production Estimated to Increase

BPS announced that the realized harvested area for paddy in April 2025 reached 1.65 million hectares, a decrease of 3.22 percent compared to April 2024 (1.71 million hectares). “This reduction in harvested area was followed by a decrease in paddy production. Paddy production in April 2025 is estimated at 9.09 million GKG (dry milled rice), a decrease of 2.68 percent compared to April last year,” Pudji stated.

Furthermore, Pudji explained that rice production for food consumption in April 2025 is estimated at 5.23 million tons, down 2.68 percent compared to April last year. Meanwhile, rice production for sub-round I (January–April) 2025 reached 14.01 million tons, an increase of 26.54 percent compared to sub-round I 2024.

Pudji added, “The potential harvested area for the next three months (May–July 2025) is estimated at 2.64 million hectares, a decrease of 0.04 million hectares or about 1.66 percent lower compared to the same period last year.” Thus, the potential harvested area for January–July 2025 is estimated at 7.14 million hectares, an increase of 0.88 million hectares (14.01 percent) compared to January–July 2024.

In addition, BPS also estimates rice production for May–July 2025 at 7.75 million tons, a decrease of 1.44 percent compared to the same period last year. “Rice production for January–July 2025 is estimated to increase, reaching 21.76 million tons, or up 14.93 percent compared to the same period last year,” Pudji explained. He also added that actual realized figures could be higher or lower depending on the paddy planting conditions throughout May–July this year.

Farmer’s Terms of Trade Increase

BPS also recorded the national Farmer’s Terms of Trade (FTT) in May 2025 at 121.15, up 0.07 percent compared to April 2025. “The increase in FTT was due to the index of prices received by farmers (It) decreasing by 0.24 percent, while the index of prices paid by farmers (Ib) decreased more sharply by 0.31 percent,” Pudji said.

Additionally, BPS noted a rise in the average price of rice at both wholesale and retail levels, by 0.05 percent and 0.20 percent month-to-month (m-to-m), respectively. Conversely, the average price of rice at milling level slightly decreased by 0.01 percent (m-to-m).