Trade Balance Surplus at the Beginning of 2026

Jakarta, (2/3)- Indonesia’s trade balance began 2026 with a positive performance. BPS-Statistics Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of US$0.95 billion in January 2026. It marks the continuation of a trade surplus for 69 consecutive months since May 2020.

Deputy Chief Statistician for Distribution and Services Statistics, Ateng Hartono, explained that the surplus was mainly supported by the positive performance of non-oil and gas commodities, while the oil and gas trade balance remained in deficit.

 “In January 2026, Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a surplus of US$0.95 billion. This surplus was supported by a non-oil and gas surplus of US$3.22 billion, while the oil and gas sector recorded a deficit of US$2.27 billion,” said Ateng during a press conference in Jakarta on Monday (2/3).

He further stated that the export value in January 2026 reached US$22.16 billion, representing an increase of 3.39 percent compared to January 2025. The increase was mainly driven by the manufacturing sector, which grew 8.19 percent (y-on-y).

 “The export value of the manufacturing industry increased by 8.19 percent in January 2026 (y-on-y), contributing 6.54 percentage points to the overall export growth,” Ateng added.

BPS recorded that the three main destination countries for Indonesia’s non-oil and gas exports were China, the United States, and India, accounting for 43.77 percent of total exports in January 2026. China remained the largest export destination with a value of US$5.27 billion (24.80 percent), followed by the United States with US$2.51 billion (11.82 percent) and India with US$1.52 billion (7.15 percent).

Non-oil and gas exports to China were mainly dominated by iron and steel, nickel and articles thereof, and mineral fuels. Meanwhile, exports to the United States primarily consisted of electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof, footwear, and knitted apparel and clothing accessories.

From the import side, the total import value in January 2026 reached US$21.20 billion, representing an increase of 18.21 percent compared with January 2025 (y-on-y). The increase was mainly driven by non-oil and gas imports, which reached US$18.04 billion, increasing 16.71 percent compared to January 2025. Meanwhile, oil and gas imports increased by 27.52 percent (y-on-y), bringing the total oil and gas imports in January 2026 to US$3.17 billion.

Based on the end use, the increase in imports in January 2026 occurred in raw materials/intermediate goods, capital goods, and consumption goods. Imports of raw materials/intermediate goods, which were the main contributors to the increase in imports, reached US$14.88 billion, increasing 14.67 percent compared to January 2025. Meanwhile, capital goods imports reached US$4.49 billion, increasing 35.23 percent compared to the same month in the previous year.

BPS reported that the three main countries of origin for Indonesia’s non-oil and gas imports in January 2026 were China, Australia, and Japan, accounting for 54.92 percent of total imports. China remained the largest source of imports with a value of US$7.89 billion (43.75 percent), followed by Australia with US$1.07 billion (5.92 percent) and Japan with US$0.95 billion (5.25 percent). Imports from China mainly consisted of electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof, mechanical machinery and equipment and parts thereof, and plastics and articles thereof.

Meanwhile, the non-oil and gas trade surplus in January 2026 was mainly supported by five commodities: Animal or vegetable fats and oils (US$3.10 billion), Mineral fuels (US$2.16 billion), Iron and steel (US$1.51 billion), Nickel and articles thereof (US$1.03 billion), and Footwear (US$0.49 billion).

Inflation occurred in February 2026

BPS recorded monthly inflation of 0.68 percent (month-to-month / m-to-m) in February 2026. This was reflected in the increase of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 109.75 in January 2026 to 110.50 in February 2026. In contrast, February of the previous year recorded a deflation of 0.48 percent. On a calendar-year basis, inflation remained controlled at 0.53 percent.

 “The expenditure group contributing the largest monthly inflation was food, beverages, and tobacco, which recorded inflation of 1.54 percent and contributed 0.45 percentage points to overall inflation. Commodities that predominantly drove inflation in this group included broiler chicken meat, cayenne pepper, fresh fish, red chili, tomatoes, rice, and chicken eggs,” explained Ateng.

Meanwhile, gasoline still contributed to deflation in February 2026, with a deflation contribution of 0.05 percent.

Based on components, February 2026 inflation was mainly driven by the volatile food component, which contributed 0.41 percentage points to inflation. Commodities that predominantly contributed to inflation were broiler chicken meat, cayenne pepper, and red chili. Meanwhile, the core inflation component contributed 0.27 percentage points, mainly driven by gold jewelry, cooking oil, cars, and rice with side dishes.

The administered prices component recorded a deflation of 0.03 percent, contributing nearly 0 percent to inflation. Gasoline was the main commodity contributing to deflation in this component. 

Regionally, 33 provinces experienced inflation, while 5 provinces recorded deflation on a monthly basis. The highest inflation occurred in South Sulawesi at 1.04 percent, while the deepest deflation occurred in West Papua at 0.65 percent.

In this release, BPS-Statistics Indonesia specifically highlights inflation developments during the Ramadan period. Based on historical data over the past five years, inflation has consistently occurred during Ramadan, although the magnitude has varied.

“The inflation rate in February 2026, which coincided with the Ramadan period, was still lower compared to the Ramadan periods in 2022 (April 2022) and 2025 (March 2025),” said Ateng. He further explained that, in general, volatile food commodities and commodities within the food, beverages, and tobacco group tend to be the main drivers of inflation during every Ramadan period.

On a year-on-year (y-on-y) basis, inflation in February 2026 was recorded at 4.76 percent, in contrast to February 2025, which experienced deflation of 0.09 percent. BPS explained that this condition was partly attributable to a low-base effect, similar to what occurred in the annual inflation of January 2026. During January–February 2025, the government implemented an electricity tariff discount policy, which caused the price level during that period to fall below its normal trend and consequently suppressed the Consumer Price Index (CPI). As this policy was no longer implemented at the beginning of 2026, the annual inflation rate in February 2026 appeared higher, even though the underlying price dynamics remained broadly in line with fundamental trends.

The impact of this low-base effect was reflected in the housing, water, electricity, and household fuels group, which recorded annual inflation of 16.19 percent in February 2026, contributing 2.26 percentage points to overall inflation. Furthermore, BPS reported that the food, beverages, and tobacco group also recorded annual inflation of 3.51 percent, contributing 1.05 percentage points to overall inflation. Meanwhile, the information, communication, and financial services group recorded deflation of 0.09 percent, contributing almost zero percentage points to inflation.

Regionally, all provinces recorded year-on-year inflation. The highest inflation rate was observed in Aceh at 6.94 percent, while the lowest was recorded in Highland Papua at 0.63 percent.

Farmers’ Terms of Trade

The Farmers’ Terms of Trade in February 2026 reached 125.45, increasing 1.50 percent compared with January 2026. The increase occurred because the price index received by farmers (It) increased 2.17 percent, which was higher than the price index paid by farmers (Ib), which increased 0.65 percent.

BPS also recorded an increase in the average wholesale and retail rice prices, which rose 0.45 percent and 0.43 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, the average rice price at the milling level decreased by 0.33 percent.

Rice and Corn Production Increased

The harvested area of paddy in January 2026 reached 0.57 million hectares, increasing 35.72 percent compared with January 2025 (0.42 million hectares). This increase was followed by a rise in paddy production, which reached 3.04 million tons of dry unhusked paddy (GKG), or 38.69 percent higher than January 2025.

BPS also reported the potential harvested area for the next three months. During February–April 2026, the harvested area is estimated at 3.92 million hectares, or 0.16 million hectares lower (3.87 percent) than the same period in the previous year. Potential paddy production during February–April 2026 is estimated at 21.24 million tons of GKG, or 4.04 percent lower than the previous year. Meanwhile, rice production during the same period is estimated to decline 4.02 percent to 12.23 million tons of rice.

“The estimated harvested area may change depending on field conditions such as pest attacks, floods, droughts, the timing of harvest realization, and other factors,” Ateng explained.

Meanwhile, the harvested area of corn in January 2026 reached 0.24 million hectares, increasing 11.17 percent compared with January 2025. Corn production in January 2026 reached 1.38 million tons of dry shelled corn with 14 percent moisture content, or 11.09 percent higher than January 2025.

International Tourist Arrivals Increased

The number of international tourist arrivals to Indonesia through main entry points in January 2026 reached 1.01 million visits, representing an increase of 1.11 percent compared with January 2025 (y-on-y). Main entry points consist of international airports, international seaports, and cross-border posts.

Another tourism indicator released by BPS-Statistics Indonesia is the number of domestic tourist trips. In January 2026, the number of domestic tourist trips reached 102.04 million trips, representing a decrease of 0.93 percent compared to January 2025.

Passenger Numbers in Several Transport Modes Continued to Grow

In January 2026, the number of railway passengers reached 48.10 million persons, representing an increase of 10.94 percent compared to January 2025. Passenger traffic also increased in international air transport, reaching 1.77 million passengers, or 2.04 percent higher than in the same month of the previous year.

Meanwhile, the number of departing domestic air passengers was recorded at 4.92 million persons, representing a decrease of 3.33 percent. The number of domestic sea transport passengers also declined by 0.55 percent to 2.61 million passengers. Passenger numbers for river, lake, and ferry transport reached 4.29 million persons, representing a decrease of 3.67 percent.

BPS also recorded that in January 2026, the volume of goods transported by domestic sea transport reached 37.49 million tons, representing a decrease of 1.05 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. Meanwhile, the volume of goods transported by railways was recorded at 5.33 million tons, representing a decrease of 7.90 percent. Furthermore, domestic air cargo transport reached 53.0 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 13.01 percent compared to January 2025.

Narahubung Media----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Favten Ari Pujiastuti 

Kepala Biro Humas dan Hukum 

Badan Pusat Statistik 

[email protected]