Press Release

Indonesia’s Trade Surplus Continues

Jakarta, November 3, 2025 — Indonesia’s merchandise trade balance recorded a surplus of US$33.48 billion during the period January–September 2025, an increase of US$11.30 billion compared to the same period last year.

“This marks Indonesia’s 65th consecutive month of trade surplus since May 2020. The surplus over January–September 2025 was primarily driven by a non-oil and gas (non-oil & gas) surplus of US$47.20 billion, while the oil and gas sector remained in deficit at US$13.71 billion,” stated Pudji Ismartini, Deputy Chief Statistician for Distribution and Services Statistics at Statistics Indonesia (BPS), in Jakarta, Monday (3/11/2025).

Exports in January–September 2025 grew by 8.14 percent year-on-year, largely supported by the manufacturing sector, which posted exports of US$167.85 billion, up 17.02 percent from the same period last year.

The top three destinations for Indonesia’s exports were China, the United States, and India, which together accounted for 41.81 percent of total non-oil & gas exports. China remained Indonesia’s largest export market, with a value of US$46.47 billion (23.26%), followed by the United States (US$23.03 billion or 11.53%), and India (US$14.02 billion or 7.02%).

Exports to China were mainly comprised of iron and steel, mineral fuels, and nickel products, while exports to the United States were dominated by machinery and electrical equipment, knitted apparel, and footwear.

Indonesia’s total imports for January–September 2025 reached US$176.32 billion, up 2.62 percent from the same period last year. Non-oil & gas imports accounted for US$152.58 billion, increasing 5.17 percent, while oil and gas imports declined 11.21 percent to US$23.75 billion.

From the perspective of usage, import growth was mainly driven by capital goods, which rose 19.13 percent year-on-year to US$35.90 billion.

China remained the main source of Indonesia’s non-oil & gas imports, with a value of US$62.07 billion (40.68%), followed by Japan (US$11.01 billion or 7.22%) and the United States (US$7.33 billion or 4.81%). Imports from China were dominated by mechanical machinery, electrical equipment, and vehicles and parts.

The non-oil and gas trade surplus during the first nine months of 2025 was largely supported by five key commodities, namely animal and vegetable fats and oils valued at US$25.14 billion, mineral fuels at US$20.15 billion, iron and steel at US$14.11 billion, nickel products at US$6.50 billion, and precious metals and jewelry at US$5.41 billion.

Inflation in October 2025

BPS reported that Indonesia recorded an inflation rate of 0.28 percent (m-to-m) in October 2025. On an annual basis, inflation reached 2.86 percent (y-on-y), while calendar year inflation stood at 2.10 percent.

Historically, October has generally seen inflation (2021–2025), except for October 2022, which recorded deflation. The inflation rate in October 2025 was the highest October inflation in the past five years.

“The personal care and other services expenditure group contributed the most to monthly inflation, with a rate of 3.05 percent and a 0.21 percentage point contribution, mainly driven by gold jewelry, which alone contributed 0.21 percentage points,” explained Pudji.

Commodities that contributed to deflation in October included shallots and bird’s eye chili (each contributing –0.03 percentage points), tomatoes (–0.02), as well as rice, long beans, and green chili (each –0.01).

By component, inflation in October 2025 was mainly driven by the core inflation component, contributing 0.25 percentage points, led by gold jewelry and university tuition fees. The administered prices component contributed 0.02 percentage points, primarily from machine-made clove cigarettes and airfare tariffs.

Across regions, 26 provinces experienced inflation, while 12 recorded deflation. The highest inflation was observed in Banten (0.57%), while the deepest deflation occurred in Papua Pegunungan (–0.92%).

Year-on-year, Indonesia recorded an inflation rate of 2.86 percent, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising from 106.01 in October 2024 to 109.04 in October 2025. The largest annual contributor was food, beverages, and tobacco, which posted 4.99 percent inflation and contributed 1.43 percentage points, mainly due to red chili. Gold jewelry also remained a key contributor to annual inflation outside the food group.

The only expenditure group experiencing annual deflation was information, communication, and financial services, with a –0.25 percent change and a –0.01 percentage point contribution.

By province, all regions recorded annual inflation, with the highest in North Sumatra (4.97%) and the lowest in Papua (0.53%).

Farmers’ Terms of Trade (FTT)

The national Farmers’ Terms of Trade (FTT) in October 2025 stood at 124.33, a slight decline of 0.02 percent from September 2025. The decrease occurred as the price index received by farmers (It) increased 0.06 percent, while the price index paid by farmers (Ib) rose 0.08 percent.

BPS also noted a continued deflation in rice prices across the supply chain — at the milling (–0.54%), wholesale (–0.18%), and retail (–0.27%) levels — consistent with the trend observed in the previous month.

Rice and Maize Production

The realized harvested area for paddy rice in September 2025 reached 1.13 million hectares, up 10.14 percent compared to September 2024 (1.03 million hectares). Accordingly, paddy production rose 8.39 percent to 5.95 million tons (dry unhusked rice equivalent).

The potential harvested area for paddy in Subround III (September–December 2025) is projected at 3.04 million hectares, up 9.77 percent year-on-year. The potential paddy production for Subround III 2025 is estimated at 16.48 million tons, an 8.70 percent increase, equivalent to 9.50 million tons of milled rice (up 8.73 percent year-on-year).

Meanwhile, the realized harvested area for maize in September 2025 was 0.22 million hectares, down 21.14 percent year-on-year, leading to an estimated production of 1.34 million tons of dried shelled maize (14% moisture content), a 21.95 percent decrease.

The potential harvested area for maize in Subround III 2025 is projected at 0.81 million hectares, up 3.27 percent, with potential production estimated at 5.13 million tons, an increase of 0.30 percent from Subround III 2024.

Tourism Indicators

Foreign tourist arrivals reached 1.39 million in September 2025, up 9.04 percent compared to September 2024 (1.28 million). Cumulatively, January–September 2025 recorded 11.43 million foreign visits, up 10.22 percent year-on-year. The top three source countries of visitors were Malaysia (19.5%), Australia (11.7%), and Singapore (8.5%). The average expenditure per foreign visitor in Q3 2025 was US$1,297.31, with an average length of stay of 10.7 nights.

For domestic tourism, domestic tourist trips in September 2025 totaled 94.36 million, up 13.19 percent year-on-year. Cumulatively, January–September 2025 recorded 901.90 million domestic trips, an increase of 18.99 percent compared to the same period in 2024.

Passenger and Freight Transportation

In September 2025, the number of international air transport passengers reached 1.8 million, an increase of 4.07 percent compared to the same period last year. An increase in passenger departures also occurred in rail transport, with 45.0 million passengers, up 5.90 percent compared to September 2024. Meanwhile, domestic sea transport passengers reached 2.4 million, or an increase of 12.57 percent compared to the previous year. On the other hand, domestic air transport passengers were recorded at 4.8 million, down 11.24 percent compared to September 2024. Additionally, ASDP ferry passengers reached 3.9 million, an increase of 7.88 percent.

BPS also reported that in September 2025, the volume of goods transported by domestic sea transport reached 43.4 million tons, an increase of 6.59 percent compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, goods transported by rail amounted to 6.2 million tons, up 0.70 percent. In contrast, goods transported by domestic air transport were recorded at 49.4 thousand tons, a decrease of 8.35 percent compared to August 2024.

Narahubung Media

Nashrul Wajdi

Plt. Kepala Biro Humas dan Hukum

Badan Pusat Statistik 

humas.hukum@bps.go.id